Irish minister says EU vote lostIrish Justice Minister Dermot Ahern says substantial vote tallies across the country show the European Union Lisbon reform treaty has been rejected.
Tallies are not official, but Mr Ahern says it is clear the No vote is ahead in a vast majority of constituencies.
This would scupper the treaty, which must be ratified by all members. Only Ireland has held a public vote on it.
Mr Ahern is the first senior figure from the Irish government to admit that it looked like the treaty had failed.
"It looks like this will be a No vote," Mr Ahern said on live television. "At the end of the day, for a myriad of reasons, the people have spoken."
He said it looked like other EU countries would ratify the treaty, so an Irish No vote would leave the EU in "uncharted waters".
Earlier, Europe Minister Dick Roche had admitted "it is not looking good"
In Irish polls, tally counters in each constituency watch votes being sorted and make their own count, giving early indications of how a vote is going.
State broadcaster RTE said initial results and projections suggested a certain win for the No camp.
"The people of Ireland have shown enormous courage and wisdom in analysing the facts presented to them and making the decision they have," said Declan Ganley of Libertas.
The BBC's Oana Lungescu in Brussels says EU leaders are bracing for defeat but are expected to press on with the treaty, which is meant to streamline decision-making in the now expanded EU.
However, she says, the third failed referendum in three years on the EU's reform plans is bound to undermine the bloc's public legitimacy and dent its confidence when it faces other big players on the world stage.
European leaders earlier said they had no "plan B" for how to proceed if Ireland's electorate voted No.
"If the Irish people decide to reject the treaty of Lisbon, naturally, there will be no treaty of Lisbon," French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said on Thursday night.
Declan Ganley of the anti-treaty lobby group Libertas said that if the No vote had indeed triumphed that it was "a great day for Ireland".
"The people of Ireland have shown enormous courage and wisdom in analysing the facts presented to them and making the decision they have," Mr Ganley said.
The No campaign was a broad coalition ranging from Libertas to Sinn Fein, the only party in parliament to oppose the treaty.
Confusion
Correspondents say many voters did not understand the treaty despite a high-profile campaign led by Prime Minister Brian Cowen, which had the support of most of the country's main parties.
Please turn on JavaScript. Media requires JavaScript to play.
The BBC's Europe editor Mark Mardell on what a No vote would mean
Mr Cowen accused the No camp of "misrepresentation", saying voters had voiced concern about "issues that clearly weren't in the treaty at all", the Irish Times reported.
Turnout is said to have been about 45%. Commentators had predicted that a low turnout figure would suggest a rejection.
The treaty, which is designed to help the EU cope with its expansion into eastern Europe, provides for a streamlining of the European Commission, the removal of the national veto in more policy areas, a new president of the European Council and a strengthened foreign affairs post.
The treaty is due to come into force on 1 January 2009.
Fourteen countries out of the 27 have completed ratification so far.
The Lisbon Treaty replaces a more ambitious draft constitution that was rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005.Just over three million Irish voters are registered - in a European Union of 490 million people.
In 2001, Irish voters almost wrecked EU plans to expand eastwards when they rejected the Nice treaty. It was only passed in a much-criticised second vote.
[NOTE: Mark Mardell, BBC'S Europe editor has a video on the link above. He's stating they they will pass the Treaty somehow, that now the EU will become MORE ambitious and more bold. He clearly spins it for the future when the Treaty of Lisbon becomes supranational European law.]
